Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Barnes & Noble is expecting to generate $3-$5 billion from e-books sales in 2013 - is it realistic?

Yesterday, Barnes & Noble, the world's largest bookseller, reported sales and earnings for its fiscal 2010 fourth quarter and full year ended May 1, 2010.

The report is full with interesting data, but one piece of information that caught my eye was that B&N Chief Executive William Lynch said that Barnes & Noble expects to have about 25% of the digital book market by 2013, providing the bookseller with the opportunity to boost revenue by $3 billion to $5 billion.

Now, I think 25% market share may be a bit optimistic, but let's leave it aside for a moment and assume Lynch is right. I still wonder how exactly he came up with the estimate of e-books sales between $3 billion and $5 billion by 2013 - if we take into account their estimated market share (25%), it means that we talk about a $16 billion e-book market in 2013 (in average).

Given that the total books market generates now about $20 billion in sales and that the estimated market share of e-books, which is currently around 5%, is expected to be around 25% in a couple of years, I think that Lynch's estimate of $3-$5 billion in sales is very far from being realistic.

What do you think about this estimate? I'll be happy to hear your thoughts about it.

More related articles:
Is there a future for Barnes & Noble and Borders bookstores? Is it a green one?, Eco-Libris Blog

E-Books Rewrite Bookselling, The Wall Street Journal

Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

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