The State of Green Business 2011 - good news when it comes to paper intensity and recycling

Today, GreenBiz.com are publishing the State of Green Business report for 2011, which is defined as "their annual effort to take the pulse of what and how the world of sustainable business is doing." We simply call it the best report available on green business.

This report is looking into couple of issues that are related to our areas of interest, and this week we'll be looking into all of them, starting today with paper.

The report, as Joel Makower chairman and executive editor of GreenBiz Group is writing today, includes mixed news, both good and bad developments in the green markets. Paper fortunately is one on the good side, presenting positive progress on two major fronts - paper intensity and recycling.

When it comes to paper intensity, we see a continuing trend of improvement. Paper intensity represents the amount of paper used per every unit of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). In other words, it shows how efficiently paper is used in the U.S. economy. In terms of tons of paper per billion of dollars of GDP, paper intensity went down from 6.79 in 2008 to 6.13 in 2009. As you can see in the graph below (taken from the report, data provided by the American Forest & Paper Association), only couple of years ago we were in the range of 7-10, so this is definitely a significant improvement.

I guess it's not a big surprise to see this trend, especially when saving on paper is such a win-win strategy that help saving not just trees, but also a lot of money. Only last week the Environmental Leader reported that the "Bank of China’s London operations have reduced paper consumption by 95 percent with help from IBM", saving £12,000 a year on paper costs alone. I believe we'll hear more on companies that adopt similar practices (electronic routing and monitoring system in this case) to move one step further towards a more efficient and paperless office.

The big question of course is not what will happen in the US and Europe, where demand for paper will probably continue to decrease, but what will be with the demand in growing economies such as China and India. Will they use growing volumes of paper or use paperless leapfrog technologies to promote their economic development.

When it comes to recycling we also see good results - The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) reported that 63.4% of U.S. paper consumed was recovered in 2009. As you can see from the data they provide in the graph below, it continues a trend of growing recovery rate, and it is the first time this rate passed the 60%.

According to the report, "The American Forest and Paper Association, an industry group, estimates that once we reach about 80 percent over-all recovery, the remainder will be unfit for the reuse stream: Bath tissues and building papers alike pose challenges to recycling for both obvious and less obvious reasons." Even if it's true, I believe it makes more sense to find ways and technologies that will enable us to recycle (and even upcycle) more paper then to throw 20% of the paper volume to the trash. In any event, we're still far from reaching this ceiling and as the report explains there's still much to be done about recycling:

But there is still room for improvement, and while businesses have led the charge in making the corrugated fibers that go into shipping products the most-recycled type of paper around, other areas of business use are lagging. For example, despite the seeming ubiquity of the blue recycling bin in offices nationwide, office and writing papers remain the least-recycled.

So good news about paper and we hope these trends will continue in the upcoming years, with or without the support of carbon regulation (hopefully with, as it will make it much simpler..). More updates from the State of Green Business report in the upcoming days. In the meantime, you can download the free report from GreenBiz.com.

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

The funniest bookstore in America!

Where? In Portlandia of course. See for yourself:



And here's another proof (if you still need one..):



Portlandia is a 6-part IFC Original short-based comedy series, created, written by and starring Fred Armisen (SNL) and Carrie Brownstein (vocalist/guitarist, WILD FLAG, Sleater-Kinney). Portlandia is the creators' dreamy and absurd rendering of Portland, Oregon.

You can watch it on IFC channel on Fridays at 10:30 PM ET/PT. Two episodes were already broadcast, so don't miss the rest of this great series!

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

Where consumers REALLY buy ebooks?

"Nearly 81% of eReader Owners Would ‘Likely’ Buy eBooks Online from Indie Bookstores" - this was the headline of an article I read last week on GalleyCat, quoting a Digital Book World and Verso survey. Really? Does it sounds realistic? I'm afraid not.

Just to give you the full quote, it says "nearly 81 percent of eReader owners would “likely” buy eBooks online from independent booksellers–as long as the prices were competitive.". It reminded me of similar headlines I have read in the past, such as these ones:

• Three-quarters (77%) of consumers describe themselves as green — that is, actively living their lives consciously of their health and environment, according to a survey by Yahoo!
  

• According to a BCG’s report, 34% of the public systematically look for and often purchase green products. (2008 figures)

• A new Pike Research survey finds that 44 percent of consumers are “extremely” or “very” interested in purchasing a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV)
  

• Fifteen percent of U.S. consumers are very or extremely likely to purchase a vehicle that has plug-in hybrid technology, not taking into account estimated market prices, according to Harris Interactive’s AutoTECHCAST U.S. study

One thing that is common to all of these findings is that although they're very optimistic, they're not real. People say one thing on these surveys and do something else in real life. Otherwise, we would already have a very large green market.

Independent bookstores account for about 10% of the industry’s retail market overall, so it doesn't make too much sense that the same readers who generally choose to ignore independent bookstores and but their paper books somewhere else, will suddenly show affection towards these stores and buy there their e-books.

The right question I believe is not where readers are likely to buy their ebooks but where they already do it. If you ask this question, you will probably receive different results.

For example, a survey conducted by the Codex Group in early November of 6,250 frequent book buyers found according to Publishers Weekly that "more book buyers acquiring their e-books for the iPad from Amazon's Kindle store rather than through Apple's iBookstore, with the Kindle store accounting for 40% of e-book sales for the iPad and the iBookstore 29% (one factor limiting sales through the iBookstore is that Random House e-books are not directly available there because RH is not using the agency model). "

As you can see from the graph with the Codex Group's survey results, among iPad owners the market share of independent bookstores is somewhere between 0%-19%. It doesn't necessarily indicate that this is this would be the same with the general population of e-book readers, but it definitely looks more realistic than 81%.

In all, my guestimation is that when it comes to ebooks, the market share of independent bookstores will be between 5%-10%, as the competition online is more fierce than the competition offline. But, that's only my guestimation - to get a real sense of what's going on we'll have to wait to a survey that will look at the places readers actually buy their e-books.

Until then don't confuse attitudes with behavior.

You can find more resources on the future of bookstores on our website at www.ecolibris.net/bookstores_future.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

My article on the Environmental Leader

Yesterday, an article I wrote, entitled 'The Case of GM’s CSR Initiative: Why Good Intentions Are Not Enough' was published on the Environmental Leader. This is not directly connected with sustainable reading, but corporate social responsibility (CSR) is one of my areas of interests and I still hope you'll find it interesting.

So what is it about? Here's a short description of the article:

GM had very good intentions. On November 18, 2010, the company announced that Chevrolet, its largest brand, will invest $40 million in various carbon offsetting projects across America. At face value, it seemed to be an appropriate way to strengthen the company’s green image and increase GM customers’ awareness of the other important green efforts the company is making. But is this really the case here? Or could it be that the $40 million is a waste for GM and its shareholders, including the American taxpayers? Unfortunately, I suspect the latter may be true.

You can read the article at http://www.environmentalleader.com/2011/01/27/the-case-of-gms-csr-initiative-why-good-intentions-are-not-enough/

If you want to learn more about Chevrolet's carbon reduction imitative, you can check their website. Here's also a video they published:

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

Where readers buy their ebooks? Week 8 of our 10-week e-book purchasing survey

We're on week 8 of our 10-week ebook experiment. Like all experiments, it began with a (research) question: Where will readers look to buy their ebooks? Following the launch of Google eBookstore, its collaboration with independent bookstores, and when Amazon, B&N, Borders and other bookstores are fighting on their market share, competition on the dollars spent by ebook buyers is getting fierce.

Our assumption is that many readers will look for e-books using a search engine and will buy from one of the first results of their search. So we randomly chose 10 books of the New York Times’ 100 Notable Books of 2010 and googled each title with the word ebook and wrote down the first two results we got. We redo it every Thursday for 10 weeks and will see if there are any changes in the search results.

Here are the results for week 8. In brackets you'll see the last week's results. If they were the same we just wrote 'same'. And if you click on the titles, you will be forwarded to the first place on the title's search):

1. Girl by the Road at Night by David Rabe
1st place: Simon & Schuster (same)
2nd place: Simon & Schuster (same)

2. The Long Song by Andrea Levy
1st place: Amazon.com (same)
2nd place: Amazon.com (same)

3. The New Yorker Stories by Ann Beattie
1st place: Amazon.com (same)
2nd place: Amazon.com (same)

4. A Visit from the Goon Squad by Jennifer Egan
1st place: Powell's Books (same)
2nd place: Amazon.com (same)

5. Big Girls Don't Cry by Rebecca Traister
1st place: Simon & Schuster (same)
2nd place: Simon & Schuster (Barnes & Noble)

6. The Price of Altruism by Oren Harman
1st place: Amazon.com (Kobo)
2nd place: Kobo (Amazon)

7. INSECTOPEDIA by Hugh Raffles
1st place: Amazon.com (same)
2nd place: Amazon.com (same)

8. Country Driving by Peter Hessler
1st place: Goodreads (same)
2nd place:Barnes & Noble (same)

9. The Warmth of Other Suns by Isabel Wilkerson
1st place: eBooks.com (Random House)
2nd place: Amazon.com (eBooks.com)

10. Hitch 22 by Christopher Hitchens
1st place: Atheist Movies (Amazon)
2nd place: Amazon.com (Atheist Movies)

Here's the summary of the results:

	Amazon		B&N		Publishers		Others
	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd
week 1	6	3	1	2	3	4	0	1
week2	6	4	1	3	3	3	0	0
week3	6	2	1	2	3	4	0	2
week4	6	3	2	1	2	4	0	2
week5	5	4	1	2	2	3	2	1
week6	5	3	0	2	3	3	2	2
week7	4	5	0	2	3	1	3	2
week8	4	6	0	1	2	2	4	1

We give 2 points for 1st place and 1 point for 2nd place:

		Amazon		B&N		Google		Publishers		Others
week 1		15		4		0		10		1
week 2		16		5		0		9		0
week 3		14		4		0		10		2
week 4		15		5		0		8		2
week 5		14		4		0		7		5
week 6		13		2		0		9		6
week 7		13		2		0		7		8
week 8		14		1		0		6		9

So what do have here? Amazon is numero uno and there's no doubt about it. Their performance is stable and it doesn't look like there's anyone who can take the first place from them. B&N on the other hand is just getting weaker and weaker. Last but not least, the 'Others' segment is getting stronger and is now the second one after Amazon with 9 points. You can find under 'Others' bookstores (Powell's Books), online bookstores (eBooks.com), dedicated e-reader bookstores like Kobo and the occasional blog (Atheist Movies this time).

Conclusions? We're still 2 weeks far from ending our experiment, but so far we can say that we see growing presence of smaller players and a clear dominance of Amazon, which no one seems to be able to threat or even get close to that. Anyway, it's certainly getting more interesting! See you next Thursday.

You can find all the survey results so far at www.ecolibris.net/buying_ebooks.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Promoting sustainable reading!

Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: The best place to learn if and when B&N is going out of business

Borders, the nation’s second-largest book chain, is as it was written on yesterday's NYT editorial, "teetering on the brink of a bankruptcy filing." We assume that Border's bankruptcy is inevitable, but what about Barnes & Noble, the nation's largest book chain? Will they follow Borders and go into bankruptcy and if so, when?

We follow closely the future of bookstores, both independent and big chains, as we see them as a viable part of the book industry and we also believe they can take an important part in making this industry more sustainable.

So we decided it's time to follow B&N even more closely in an effort to provide an estimate that is more than just a guestimation and is based on a number of parameters that together provide an indication on the state of B&N and how close or far they are from bankruptcy.

Therefore we're launching today a B&N Bankruptcy Index that is based on 10 parameters, which receive a grade between 1-10 (1 - worst grade, 10 - best grade). Hence we receive a 0-100 point index scale, which we divide into several ranges as follows:

90-100: B&N is in an excellent shape. Couldn't be better!
80-89: B&N is doing great. Bankruptcy is no longer a real threat.
70-79: B&N could do better and has to be cautious of bankruptcy.
60-69: B&N doesn't look good and bankruptcy is becoming a real threat.
50-59: Bankruptcy is a clear and present danger.
49 and less: Red alert! Bankruptcy is just around the corner and is likely to happen within a short time frame.

Starting today, we'll provide you every Wednesday an update on each one of the parameters included in the B&N Bankruptcy Index and will analyze the trend. So here we go:

1. Confidence of the stock market in B&N
This parameter will look at the performance of the B&N stock (symbol: BKS) in the last week. The performance of B&N's stock is an indication of the confidence the market has in the ability of B&N to maintain a viable business.

So let's look at last week's figures:

1/19: $16.81
1/25: $16.49
Change: -1.90%

As you can see, there wasn't much of a change in B&N's stock price over the last week, and actually it's doing OK so far this year (it started the year at a stock price of $15.42). Also technical indicators for the stock are Bullish and S&P gives BKS a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating. Therefore this week's grade for this parameter is: 8

2. What analysts say on B&N
Matt Fassler, B&N Analyst, Goldman Sachs wasn't very optimistic on the Digital Book World (DBW) conference earlier this week: Across the board, even for B&N, losses have exceeded expectations. Economics of digital business for B&N look worse than they should. Historically the big box retail books business wasn’t a great business for the shareholders... For B&N going private wouldn’t solve any of their major issues. Expect to see a downsizing of the number of stores and store sizes as the continued growth of ebooks continues. A painful downsizing over the next few years but the industry will continue to exist.

Not very encouraging I have to say and therefore this week's grade for this parameter is: 6

3. New strategy to regain sales in the brick and mortar stores
Just like Borders, B&N still doesn't have a a clear and comprehensive strategy that will transform their brick and mortar stores from a liability back to an asset.

Adding more toys, games and other merchandise is OK and might generate more cash (although as Matt Fassler, B&N Analyst, Goldman Sachs noted on DBW,"repurposing square footage very hard to do") but in any case it is not a substitute for a real strategy that will address the weaknesses of the current business model and offer a new vision for the stores.

B&N knows very well their business environment is changing. As Robert Wienstein mentioned last week on Seeking Alpha, B&n made a statement in its last annual report about "repositioning its business from a store-based model to a multichannel model.....". They definitely do a good job on the online channel (see parameter 8), but when it comes to the brick and mortar stores B&N still haven't come out with anything that looks like a winning strategy. Therefore this week's grade for this parameter is: 4.5

4. What B&N is saying about itself
This parameter will examine quotes and statements from B&N on its financial state, strategy and other related issues. Here's a quote we found on the Washington Post's article from last week 'Borders struggles amid rapid changes in book sales': Even Barnes & Noble, which analysts say is better run than Borders, feels the stress of steering a business whose customers' bookmarks are increasingly digital. "Sometimes I want to shoot myself in the morning," joked Leonard Riggio, founder and chairman of Barnes and Noble.

Although a joke, it's still not encouraging to hear it from Riggio and it gives you a sense of how serious B&N's problems are. Therefore this week's grade is: 6

5. Steps B&N is taking
Last week Publishers Weekly reported that B&N laid off about 45 to 50 positions in the buying group. Cuts included included merchandising VP Bob Wietrak and small press and vendor relations director Marcella Smith." Publishers didn't like it as PW reported - "Publishers were shook by the news with the larger publishers wondering who would oversee merchandising, while smaller presses questioned who would be looking out for their interests. The growth in digital is great, one publisher noted, but added "someone has to be in charge of getting books into the stores.""

MOBYLIVES tried to answer the question "What possessed B&N to not only fire such important employees, but to do it in such a cynical (or is it desperate) bad-publicity-be-damned style?" and explained that "It remains a mystery, but there is a general consensus that it has something to do with B&N being shaken by what’s happened to Borders, and by how the big houses aren’t racing to save Borders, either. That would mean that B&N was eradicating some big salaries as part of a nascent streamlining program in case its fortunes suddenly turn, too."

We believe that even if it helps cash flow in the short run, this step does not look very beneficial in long-term view and above all reflects the lack of clear strategy at B&N when it comes to their brick and mortar stores. In all this step doesn't help stakeholders to regain confidence in the company. Therefore this week's grade of this parameter is: 5

6. Competitors
This parameter will mainly look into Borders and how its problems affect B&N. Let's start first with the positive side - As Karen Dionne wrote on the Daily Finance earlier this week, if Borders' 600 retail outlets, which command roughly 10% of the bricks-and-mortar retail book market, were to close, analysts predict that B&N would pick up 18% of the Borders market, i.e. about 2% of the books retail business.

On the less positive side, when Borders gets into trouble, it doesn't reflect well on B&N, as both are experiencing serious problems and addressing similar changes in the book retail business, as the Washington Post's article described it:

Now, Borders confronts the limitless, more efficient supply chain of Amazon's online emporium. Borders, which helped a generation of readers learn the pleasure of diving into a book for hours at a stretch, now competes for the attention of readers who dip into a few pages on an iPad, open Facebook, read some more, then tweet random thoughts. Printed books don't need a power outlet or a data plan, yet for some people, their utility seems to be fading.

In all, Borders' struggling actually show that bankruptcy, which once was unthinkable when you talked about the big book chains, is now a possibility and even more than that also for B&N. Therefore our weekly grade for this parameter is: 6

7. Financial strength
B&N's latest financial report was published on November 2010 for its second quarter, which ended Oct. 30. The report included the following data:

Total sales (for the quarter) - $1.9 billion (including sales of Barnes & Noble College Booksellers)
EBITDA (for the quarter) -$46 million
Net loss (for the quarter) - $12.6 million, or $0.22 a share
Cash and cash equivalents - $30.16 million
Net working capital (Current assets - current liabilities) - $75.8 million
Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) - 1.037
Debt Ratio (Total Liabilities / Total Assets) - 0.795
Equity Ratio (Shareholders' Equity / Total Assets) - 0.20

This is what we got until the next report will be published on February and it definitely could be worst. It looks like B&N still has the financial strength to survive. This parameter's grade is: 7.5

8. Strength of the ebook business
This maybe the part of the business B&N is most proud of with the thriving Nook and the growing sales at BN.com. Not everyone share the same thoughts - Matt Fassler, B&N Analyst, Goldman Sachs noted on DBW that "economics of digital business for B&N look worse than they should."

B&N also suffered a setback earlier this week when it was reported that the company is phasing out the Nook 3G due to lack of demand.

More over, B&N still haven't found the way to translate its success to become a dominant player in the e-book market to support sales in its stores. If B&N wants to continue and be more than just a successful online business, it must find the way to do it. This week's grade is: 7.5

9. Sense of urgency
Maybe B&N think they still have time, especially now after they had successful holidays sales,but this is not the case of course and if we can learn something from the Borders' case, it's how fast things go bad when your reach a certain tipping point of financial distress or distrust of your stakeholders (consumers or publishers for example). Therefore this parameter will try to look into B&N's sense of urgency.

Right now it seems though can be closer than it looks and when one block falls, the others tend to fall very quickly afterwards. Every day that goes by without taking serious steps is increasing the chance for bankruptcy, with our without a new buyer.

The case of Borders is definitely unfortunate, but B&N can still avoid taking the same path. I'm not sure if these lessons alone will save B&N, but I'm certain that if B&N will avoid them, they are significantly increasing the chances that they will follow Borders. The week's grade is: 6

10. General feeling
This parameter will be an indication of our impression of all the materials read and analyzed for this index. Our feeling this week is not very good given how B&N is handling the situation so far, although we believe the alarming bells are not ringing yet. Therefore this week's grade is: 7

This week's Barnes & Noble Bankruptcy Index: 63.5 points

As you can see, this week's index is set at 63.5 points, which translates into the scale of 60-69: B&N doesn't look good and bankruptcy is becoming a real threat. Definitely not a good starting point, but we'll have to see in the next couple of weeks if we're going up or down to determine if B&N is heading towards a bankruptcy or getting away of it. See you next Wednesday.

To view the weekly changes in the index visit Barnes and Noble Bankruptcy Index on our website.

You can find more resources on the future of bookstores on our website at www.ecolibris.net/bookstores_future.asp

Yours,
Raz @ Eco-Libris

Eco-Libris: Working to green the book industry!

Green book of the week - Make It in America: The Case for Re-Inventing the Economy

Just in time for the State of the Union Address we have a guest book review of a book that I'm sure President Obama could use for citations in his upcoming speech tonight. This post was written by Daniel Fielding of the Green Technology Blog.

Make It in America: The Case for Re-Inventing the Economy by Andrew Liveris

Book review by Daniel Fielding

There is a tremendous potential for growth in the production of new products designed to help save energy and reduce our carbon footprint: batteries for hybrid/electric vehicles, cheap solar cells for the masses.

These are the ideas within the pages of Dow Chemical chairman and chief executive officer Andrew Liveris’ new book, "Make it in America: The Case for Re-Inventing The Economy”. The book was recently released in paperback, but in the future, it says environmentally friendly e-ink devices will be more common.

Liveris goes on to explain why production is of such central importance to revitalizing the economy of the United States, as well as maintaining American competitiveness in domestic and global markets.

In the book's introduction, Liveris writes that the manufacturing sector of the economy is capable of producing jobs, value, and domestic growth in ways that the service sector cannot. The new sector, according to Liveris, is in the manufacturing and research of green technology domestically within the United States.

He addresses the intricacies within his 240-page book published by Wiley and Sons Inc.

"It isn’t the economic downturn that got us here. The recession only unmasked deeper, systemic problems, among them the fact that America has, for decades, neglected the things that matter most to its economic health and long-term strength, The manufacturing sector has created some of the world’s most important innovations, that built the middle class, has eroded – in part due to reasons beyond our control, in part because of our own neglect. As a result, we haven’t just lost millions of jobs we haven’t just lost the tools to create long-term prosperity. We’ve lost an important part of our national identity."

Liveris makes a case against neoliberalism, arguing against purely free market principles. Liveris believes that solely abiding by free market principles is not enough to put the United States back into a position of leadership and prosperity, governmental intervention is necessary.

"Of course, stimulating demand is a critical first step toward building a vibrant renewable energy sector. But it is just a first step government policies must also reduce risk and uncertainty for manufacturers in this area. I’m often asked, given the uncertainty around renewables, how Dow has managed to jump with both feet into the business of solar and battery technologies. The answer is simple. We had help.

"There was far too much risk, far too many unknowns, for us to enter the market to this degree. But the federal government and the state of Michigan came to us and provided investments. They removed enough of our uncertainty. With this guarantee of governmental support, the Dow board looked at my proposal to build two new plants in Midland, and approved it in nanoseconds.”

Andrew Liveris has 30-year career with Dow Chemical. He has worked in marketing, manufacturing, new business development, sales, and management. A large portion of his career was spent in Asia. He was the general manager for Dow’s operations in Thailand, and then was promoted to the head of all Asia-Pacific operations. He began his career with Dow in 1976 in Australia.

He has been a member of Dow's Board of Directors since February 2004 and was elected as Chairman of the Board effective April 1, 2006.

This post was written by Daniel Fielding, a freelance writer who focuses on gadgets and the environment. He is the lead editor for Shades of Green, a Green Technology Blog.